World Grain - July 2024 - 38

FEATURE: NO END IN SIGHT FOR SHIPPING VOLATILITY
If and when the Suez Canal
re-opens, market supply-demand
balances and rates are likely to
see a substantial re-adjustment.
Plamen Natzkoff, MSI
advances in green steel manufacturing using scrap
steel could affect iron ore shipments in the long run.
However, decarbonization has also supported dry bulk
cargoes such as steel, aluminum, bauxite and other
ores. "
He said the combined Supramax and Handysize fleet
had grown by 3% year-on-year so far in 2024, although
effective supply was expected to grow slightly slower
than the fleet because sailing speeds have slowed.
" So far this year, demand has grown faster than supply,
strengthening freight rates, " he said.
He added that a combination of uncertainty regarding
alternative fuels, long delivery times and high
prices for newbuilds had further limited newbuild
contracting.
" Shipyards are still occupied by orders for ships in
other sectors such as container and LNG, " he said. " A
ship contracted today may only be delivered after 2026,
especially in the case of larger ships. Nonetheless, we
believe that amid an aging fleet and increasingly strict
climate regulations, contracting is bound to recover. "
However, for owners looking at the supply-demand
balance in the short and medium term, Red Sea vessel
diversions loom large. Put simply, the reopening of
the Suez Canal could reverse the current market very
quickly, causing freight rates to tumble as quickly as
they have risen, perhaps by as much as the 40% to 50%
they have gained this year, according to MSI.
" If and when the Suez Canal re-opens, market supply-demand
balances and rates are likely to see a substantial
re-adjustment, " Natzkoff said.
Michael King is a multi-award-winning journalist and
podcaster as well as a shipping and logistics consultant. He also
supplies an array of corporate services. For more information,
email mikeking121@gmail.com.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
38
July 2024 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
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World Grain - July 2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2024

World Grain - July 2024 - Intro
World Grain - July 2024 - 1
World Grain - July 2024 - 2
World Grain - July 2024 - 3
World Grain - July 2024 - 4
World Grain - July 2024 - 5
World Grain - July 2024 - 6
World Grain - July 2024 - 7
World Grain - July 2024 - 8
World Grain - July 2024 - 9
World Grain - July 2024 - 10
World Grain - July 2024 - 11
World Grain - July 2024 - 12
World Grain - July 2024 - 13
World Grain - July 2024 - 14
World Grain - July 2024 - 15
World Grain - July 2024 - 16
World Grain - July 2024 - 17
World Grain - July 2024 - 18
World Grain - July 2024 - 19
World Grain - July 2024 - 20
World Grain - July 2024 - 21
World Grain - July 2024 - 22
World Grain - July 2024 - 23
World Grain - July 2024 - 24
World Grain - July 2024 - 25
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World Grain - July 2024 - 27
World Grain - July 2024 - 28
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