World Grain - March 2022 - 38
GRAIN MARKETS
UNSETTLED BY
UKRAINE-RUSSIA
Potential conflict the focus of discussion at Paris Grain Day
by Chris Lyddon
E
uropean Union wheat needs to find new markets,
while tight stocks will keep the maize market
bullish. But the greatest uncertainty in the world's
grain markets in early 2022 is the potential effect of the
crisis between Russia and Ukraine, two of the world's
biggest exporters, delegates at Paris Grain Day in late
January were told.
Fahad Vaipel, vice president, leading global wheat
and barley analytics for Olam in Switzerland, said
that EU exporters, notably France, are losing their
traditional demand centers for wheat in Algeria and
Saudi Arabia.
" In the current season, as well as supply and demand,
a key driver is also about how the new crop situation
shapes up, " he said. " Today in a normal weather situation
the stocks situation in the major exporters is expected
to improve. "
Looking at demand for French wheat, he noted that
both Algeria and Saudi Arabia have opened up to imports
from the Black Sea, including, probably, Romania
and Bulgaria.
" French wheat used to enjoy a premium to Russian, "
he said, pointing to formerly inelastic demand into
Algeria and Saudi Arabia. " That has gone off now and
38
today we will probably see French wheat trading close
to $10 discount to Russian wheat.
" French (wheat) needs to get an increasing market
share in West Africa. Probably even, depending on the
crop size need to explore other destinations, into Asia,
or Mexican demand. "
Vaipel turned to the situation in high protein wheat,
which " this year was extremely tight because of the
crop in Canada and the US northern plains. "
" High-protein prices have been at historic highs relative
to other normal protein wheat, " he said. " This situation
could persist. "
The main reason for this being the competition for
acreage in Canada and the United States for the highprotein
area.
" The competing crops are also highly priced, " he
said. " It is not the usual competition from corn and
beans, but the other crops, such as canola and the other
minor grains. "
Vaipel also discussed the potential conflict between
Russia and Ukraine. He compared the current situation
with the February 2014 crisis, when Russia annexed
Crimea.
" Then, after that, the conflict has been escalating, deMarch
2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
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World Grain - March 2022
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - March 2022
World Grain - March 2022 - Intro
World Grain - March 2022 - 1
World Grain - March 2022 - 2
World Grain - March 2022 - 3
World Grain - March 2022 - 4
World Grain - March 2022 - 5
World Grain - March 2022 - 6
World Grain - March 2022 - 7
World Grain - March 2022 - 8
World Grain - March 2022 - 9
World Grain - March 2022 - 10
World Grain - March 2022 - 11
World Grain - March 2022 - 12
World Grain - March 2022 - 13
World Grain - March 2022 - 14
World Grain - March 2022 - 15
World Grain - March 2022 - 16
World Grain - March 2022 - 17
World Grain - March 2022 - 18
World Grain - March 2022 - 19
World Grain - March 2022 - 20
World Grain - March 2022 - 21
World Grain - March 2022 - 22
World Grain - March 2022 - 23
World Grain - March 2022 - 24
World Grain - March 2022 - 25
World Grain - March 2022 - 26
World Grain - March 2022 - 27
World Grain - March 2022 - 28
World Grain - March 2022 - 29
World Grain - March 2022 - 30
World Grain - March 2022 - 31
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World Grain - March 2022 - 33
World Grain - March 2022 - 34
World Grain - March 2022 - 35
World Grain - March 2022 - 36
World Grain - March 2022 - 37
World Grain - March 2022 - 38
World Grain - March 2022 - 39
World Grain - March 2022 - 40
World Grain - March 2022 - 41
World Grain - March 2022 - 42
World Grain - March 2022 - 43
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World Grain - March 2022 - 47
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World Grain - March 2022 - 51
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World Grain - March 2022 - 63
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World Grain - March 2022 - 65
World Grain - March 2022 - 66
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World Grain - March 2022 - 73
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World Grain - March 2022 - 82
World Grain - March 2022 - 83
World Grain - March 2022 - 84
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