World Grain - March 2022 - 40

FEATURE: GRAIN MARKETS UNSETTLED BY UKRAINE-RUSSIA CRISIS
Last year for Turkey was not a good year. It has
revealed the necessity of supplying the missing
harvest, especially in wheat and corn and also barley.
Sinan Bayrakli, managing partner, Kesmezlioglu Grain Trade
escalating, " he said. " The other two times we have seen
escalating in the summer of 2018 and in 2021 and also
now the situation is probably escalating to the levels
seen in 2014.
" The point to note here is the impact on the share of
Russia and Ukraine's exports on the global wheat market.
In 2014, when previously the conflict heated up
and the war happened, it was only 17% of world trade.
Today we are looking at almost double the share so that
kind of amplifies the impact on the world wheat trade
if anything happens. "
Volatile corn market
Alexander
Paris Grain Day
delegates enjoy
a networking
opportunity
during a
break in the
proceedings.
Karavaytsev, senior economist
at
the
International Grains Council (IGC), considered the
corn market, calling last year's situation " really remarkable. "
In the four major exporters - Argentina,
Brazil, Ukraine and the United States - " prices were
at around a nine-year high last year, " he said. " That was
linked, in particular, to surprisingly low planting intentions
in the US, worries about crop prospects in Brazil,
as well as huge purchases by China. "
" There has been some retreat in prices since that moment,
but the gross trend resumed sometime around
September last year and prices have been trending
higher ever since, " he said. " That uptrend continues
against the backdrop when everyone is anticipating record
production in 2021-22. "
Looking at the Northern Hemisphere, he said harvests
are mostly wrapped up now and results are rather
positive.
" We anticipated most major producers would increase
their production, " he said. " There is some
uncertainty about South American - and Southern
Hemisphere in general - production at the moment. "
The IGC has trimmed its production forecasts for
Argentina and Brazil, reflecting losses in early planted
crops.
" In the case of Brazil, it is the first crop, the full-season
crop, and that represents a relatively smaller share
of annual production for the country, around 25%, " he
said. " That is mainly used for the domestic market.
" What is more important is the safrinha crop, which
represents around three-quarters of the country's production.
This will be the major source of exports so
that will largely determine what the country will have
to export in the next 12 months. "
Both countries are still expected to have
record crops, he said, but added " we are
not anticipating a significant improvement
in stocks by the end of the season. "
" While production is expected to increase,
demand is also expected to grow,
and that will lead just to a slight increase
in global stocks (which) will be a rebound
from an eight-year low in the previous
season, so not much of an improvement in
terms of supply, " he said. " That is why the
market sentiment has been quite bullish. "
Karavaytsev said he anticipated a " significant
increase " in demand for corn, with
feed returning as a driver.
Russia's export duty impact
Christina Serebryakova, broker and head
of the analytical department
at
Atria
Brokers in Ukraine, said that " during
this half other marketing year, we saw
that many countries, competitors, earned
40
March 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Photo courtesy of Paris Grain Day
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - March 2022

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