World Grain - March 2022 - 42

FEATURE: GRAIN MARKETS UNSETTLED BY UKRAINE-RUSSIA CRISIS
a lot with Russia, for example, in Nigeria,
where Ukraine had broken into a market
Russia has lost. The Ukraine-based broker
also highlighted rising prices because of
the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
" It is a bit scary, " she said. " We still
Volatile grain
prices were
a hot topic
at this year's
event in Paris.
money from the situation that we have with Russia. "
" After the introduction of the floating export
duty in June, prices in Russia became really high
and it also supported prices in other regions, "
Serebryakova said.
She said for Russia it is still really a loss of a
huge amount of money. Russian farmers were losing
around seven roubles, which she put at " something
like 10¢ " on each kilogram of grain.
Russian farmers are not selling grain because they
prefer to hold it instead of cash, " which will devaluate
and they will lose it. "
" Will Russia have this kind of duty in the new season? "
she asked. " Actually, I think most of all, yes,
because the government, I think, got a bit used to
it because it is a huge amount of money coming to
the treasury. "
During July to December, Russia had exported
56% of its forecast for the year, down from 66% in
the same period a year earlier.
" The pace is connected to this duty, mostly because
they have good stocks and enough wheat to
export in general, " she said. " This Russian duty gave
an advantage to Ukrainian grain in the price sensitive
markets of Turkey, with its devaluation of the
lira, and also in Egypt. Ukraine increased exports of
wheat to Turkey by something like three times. "
Ukraine's wheat sales to Egypt had risen by about 1
million tonnes.
" Russia is decreasing its presence in Egypt because
Egypt is a price-sensitive market, " she said, explaining
that freight was also playing a role.
Regarding wheat, she said Ukraine also is competing
42
hope that it is some more kind of cold
war and that it will only be on the political
side.
" What is the reality is that market
participants use these kinds of situations
to lift prices upwards. The share of
Ukraine and Russia combined in the export
of wheat, world exports of wheat,
are about 30%. "
The conflict could lead to " disruption
because of how many days different countries
of destination are located from other
sources, " she said. " For example, to take
wheat somewhere from Argentina will
take about 22 days, up to one month to Egypt. "
The journey from Ukraine or Russia is five or six days.
Troubles in Turkey
Sinan Bayrakli, managing partner of Kesmezlioglu
Grain Trade in Turkey, expressed concern over the situation
in Russia and Ukraine " which are our major suppliers
and business partners. "
" I would like to emphasize the role of Turkey as a
grain hub, as a first buyer and also Turkey's role as
a transfer market to the Middle East and also North
Africa, " he said. " As well as its role as one of the biggest
buyers of grain in the Black Sea region, especially
in corn and wheat.
" Last year for Turkey was not a good year. It has revealed
the necessity of supplying the missing harvest,
especially in wheat and corn and also barley. "
There had been a significant increase in exchange
risk, which has directly affected the character of grain
trading this year, he said. However, Turkey also has an
advantage because of its location as a hub. It is one of
the biggest grain importers in the world.
" Turkey is using its import power to penetrate intransit
markets to Iraqi, to Syria, to Iran, to Middle East
and to Asia, " he said. " I am not so pessimistic about
what is going on at the moment but am trying to underline
the difficulties that we are facing so far. "
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: cajlyddon@gmail.com
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March 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Photo courtesy of Paris Grain Day
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - March 2022

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