World Grain - March 2022 - 68

Bad omen
FOR CENTRAL US WEATHER
Strongly negative PDO and multiple years of La Niña could create prolonged dryness
by Drew Lerner
Y
ears of atmospheric study are on the line in
2022. Decades of experience, predictions and
failures and lessons learned have convinced this
meteorologist that the atmosphere is a chaotic mess
up close, but when you step back it is rhythmic and a
little more orderly than one might believe. The phrase
" we are living in interesting times " seems to fit well
socially, economically and even atmospherically today.
Multiple weather patterns are lining up with the same
signal, raising deeper concerns that North America's
drought will advance to the east this summer while
allowing wetter conditions back into Canada and the
northern US Plains.
If nothing else has been learned in the past four
decades, meteorologists and climatologists have discovered
that the oceans play a huge role in planet
earth's weather. Of course, ENSO (El Niño/Southern
Oscillation) events, La Niña and El Niño, are completely
driven by ocean surface temperature anomalies
in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean.
There are a number of other ocean-related oscilCorrelation
PDSI Jun to Aug with Oct to Dec
PDO (index leads by 8 months) 1948 to 2019
lations that exist, but the one that is playing out this
year along with La Niña is Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO). The northeastern and north-Pacific Ocean
surface temperatures are anomalous in such a way
that cool water is present off the West Coast of North
America while warmer-than-usual water exists across
the north-central Pacific. This phenomenon is called
the negative phase of PDO and that usually results in a
higher potential for a trough of low pressure to evolve
along or over the West Coast of the United States, especially
during the warm season.
The negative PDO, when strong enough, can produce
cooler-biased conditions in the western United
States during the spring and summer seasons and support
a strong ridge of high pressure in the middle of the
nation.
There is a PDO index that is used to determine the
significance of the anomalous temperatures in the
Pacific Ocean and in the fourth quarter of 2021 that index
was as strongly negative as it was in the 1950s. The
negative PDO index has been seen multiple times in
Correlations with October through December PDO
Correlation Precipitation Jun to Aug with Oct to
Dec PDO (index leads by 8 months) 1948 to 2019
68
March 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Source: World Weather Inc.

http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - March 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - March 2022

World Grain - March 2022 - Intro
World Grain - March 2022 - 1
World Grain - March 2022 - 2
World Grain - March 2022 - 3
World Grain - March 2022 - 4
World Grain - March 2022 - 5
World Grain - March 2022 - 6
World Grain - March 2022 - 7
World Grain - March 2022 - 8
World Grain - March 2022 - 9
World Grain - March 2022 - 10
World Grain - March 2022 - 11
World Grain - March 2022 - 12
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World Grain - March 2022 - 14
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World Grain - March 2022 - 18
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World Grain - March 2022 - 20
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World Grain - March 2022 - 35
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World Grain - March 2022 - 38
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World Grain - March 2022 - 40
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
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