World Grain - March 2024 - 65

Warmest Februarys
25N
30N
35N
40N
45N
50N
55N
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1
120W
110W 100W 90W 80W
70W
-10
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Mean temp (F) anomaly Feb1-25 2024
-6
-2
2
6
10
Temperature anomolies (F)
Versus 1981-2010 longterm average
Feb 1954, 1998, 1930, 1976, 1999, 2000, 1992, 1931,
1987, 1984, 2017
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
Temperature anomolies (F)
Versus 1981-2010 longterm average
Jul 2017, 1954, 1988, 1930, 1976, 1999, 2000, 1931, 1987,
1984, 2017
maining from last summer's drought. In recent weeks,
there has been a mysteriously dry and warm bias in the
heart of North America.
February temperatures were at or near record-warm
levels for much of the Midwest, allowing greater evaporation
and drying during the middle of winter, which
is never a great feature to have when the growing season
is approaching.
Many years ago, World Weather, Inc. assessed the
10 warmest Februarys and found that they often were
followed by warmer-than-usual Julys. While that is not
enough to rely on for a summer forecast, the lunar cycle
has promoted a frequent occurrence of very warm
to hot summers. The years looked at included 2006,
1988, 1970, 1952, 1934 and 1916. Many of these summers
were warmer biased, but one feature that stands
out in the Plains and western Midwest corn and soybean
production area is a greater number of 100-degree
days relative to normal.
Many of these years produced more excessive heat
than other years, with 1934 leading the way. However,
2006 was also a notable summer with excessive heat
in the Plains and western Corn Belt, and 1970 was
also in that category. The least amount of excessive
heat among those years was in 1916, but each of the
other years reported numerous days of 100-plus degree
heat from Texas and a part of the western Delta to
Illinois, Missouri, Iowa and South Dakota. The Plains
were hottest.
The heat showing up in the lunar cycle years along
with unusually warm February weather that could lead
to an unusually warm to hot July (by correlation of past
years) makes the heat potential a little more real. But
that is not all.
Will La Niña arrive this summer?
The US National
Ocean and
Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) has a forecast model that has
been consistently predicting La Niña could emerge by
World-Grain.com / World Grain / March 2024
June of this year. In the past, years that begin with a
moderately strong El Niño and transition to La Niña
by mid-year have tended to be drier and warmer than
usual. That agrees with the lunar cycle and our correlation
with unusually warm Februarys.
World Weather, Inc. also has been monitoring world
weather patterns for decades and notes the changes associated
with the January 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic
eruption (which was the greatest in modern history).
Global temperatures have spiked even higher than climate
trend models predicted, and it may be due to the
increase in stratospheric moisture resulting from the
volcanic eruption.
Temperatures were excessively hot in the Northern
Hemisphere last summer and similar conditions occurred
in Australia in recent weeks and in Argentina
earlier this summer as well as Brazil during the spring.
The effects of the volcanic eruption should slowly dissipate
over the next couple of years, but there may be
enough heat remaining in the atmosphere to bring excessive
temperatures to the central United States this
summer since there is already support for warmer-thanusual
conditions.
If all these cycles and atmospheric influences come
together and support one another, the US Plains and
western Corn and Soybean Belt may be subjected to
one of the hottest summers in recent years. That could
impact summer grain and oilseed production in 2024 in
a more notable manner relative to the recent past drier
summers that had no excessive heat.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World
Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past
and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the
corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to
change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
65
Source: World Weather Inc.
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - March 2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - March 2024
