World Grain - May 2022 - 10

NEWS REVIEW
Ukraine war to have lasting impact
on food inflation, supply chain
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA, US - As the war continues in
Ukraine, the impact on global agriculture will have prolonged
affects, including food inflation, limited fertilizer supplies,
a European recession and fundamental changes in supply
chains.
" There's a lot that we are not talking about in terms of the
overall issues that can come from the Ukrainian-Russian
conflict, particularly if it extends over a year, two or three, "
said Richard Kottmeyer with FTI Consulting, Inc., during
a webinar April 14 hosted by the American Feed Industry
Association (AFIA).
The conflict adds another layer to existing pressure on the
agriculture industry from the COVID-19 pandemic and the
EU's Farm to Fork Strategy, which aims to reduce the environmental
and climate impact of production.
Food inflation is likely to hit levels not seen in 20 plus
years, Kottmeyer said.
" If the war ended today, we would have food inflation widely
for three years, " he said. " That's significant. As the war
continues, food inflation and the number of years continues
to get worse. "
Commodity prices will continue to climb, Kottmeyer explained,
with some models showing corn rising above $12
a bushel.
" I'm not saying it's a likely scenario, but the question is are
you prepared if it becomes the scenario? " Kottmeyer asked.
With the food inflation that currently exists and the likelihood
it will get worse, there is severe pressure on fundamental
stability in northern and west Africa, he said.
" The Ukrainian conflict is likely to lead to other conflicts
within the next 24 months, " Kottmeyer said. " That could put
severe pressure on any number of specialty commodities, and
agriculture trade in general. "
The problem compounds further if there is another COVID
outbreak, or another problem to top the ones that already exist,
he said.
" There is going to be a fight for supply, for inputs, for
wheat, for food, between energy and grains, " Kottmeyer said.
" There isn't a model I see where someone is not a loser. The
question is who loses and what do they lose? How are we
going to define who is harmed by the scarcity? Without that
definition, it's going to be developing countries and we're going
to go from one conflict to more conflicts. "
It is possible China could step in with wheat or other commodities
to provide food security for Africa and other countries
that are most at risk, he said.
" That creates all kinds of geopolitical questions in terms of
what is the cost, " Kottmeyer said. " What are the loyalty and
geopolitical changes if China takes food security on its Belt
and Road Initiative 2.0. "
Infrastructure was already in chaos in part because of
COVID, and now it's worse. It's likely ports in the Black Sea
are going to be Russian or split, Kottmeyer said.
" Supply chains fundamentally are going to have to change, "
he said. " What happens with labor? Labor is a critical issue
and we have a lot of negotiations going on right now. "
Recession is likely in the EU, with the possibility of losing
3% to 4% in terms of GDP in the region. Fertilizer accessibility
also will be an issue with 50% of the Black Sea region's
potash not shipped.
" It looks like Russia and Belarus are limiting shipment and
production, " Kottmeyer said. " With limited supply, Europe
is unlikely to get allocations. India may be the most at risk
for lack of fertilizer because they are some of the earliest
to plant. "
There are also significant direct, physical disruptions in
the region, explained Roland Fumasi, RaboResearch Food &
Agribusiness, including the ability to produce crops in Ukraine
right now and moving that production out of the region.
Disruptions include land mines in agriculture fields and
a labor shortage as people move away from agriculture to
defend their country. Fumasi said they estimate 50% of
Ukrainian wheat production is in heavy conflict zone and 25%
of corn production.
" It's a big challenge right now in terms of getting a crop
planted, " he said. " Even if we assume that Russia and Ukraine
get some crop planted and harvested, we have a major logistical
challenge. "
The United States could increase exports of corn and wheat
by 200 million bushels each, Fumasi said. But that would only
make up 10% of the shortfall in wheat and about 17% of the
corn shortfall.
A Note to Our Readers
World Grain knows how important it is to have timely access to the vital industry information and insights we provide.
In addition to our industry-leading print editions, you can always stay engaged wherever you are with our digital editions
at world-grain.com/digital_editions, and get the latest news first by signing up for World Grain's newsletters at worldgrain.com/Newsletter_Subscriptions.
For
assistance, please email us at subscriptions@sosland.com.
10
May 2022 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com
http://www.world-grain.com/digital_editions http://www.grain.com/Newsletter_Subscriptions http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - May 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - May 2022

World Grain - May 2022 - Intro
World Grain - May 2022 - 1
World Grain - May 2022 - 2
World Grain - May 2022 - 3
World Grain - May 2022 - 4
World Grain - May 2022 - 5
World Grain - May 2022 - 6
World Grain - May 2022 - 7
World Grain - May 2022 - 8
World Grain - May 2022 - 9
World Grain - May 2022 - 10
World Grain - May 2022 - 11
World Grain - May 2022 - 12
World Grain - May 2022 - 13
World Grain - May 2022 - 14
World Grain - May 2022 - 15
World Grain - May 2022 - 16
World Grain - May 2022 - 17
World Grain - May 2022 - 18
World Grain - May 2022 - 19
World Grain - May 2022 - 20
World Grain - May 2022 - 21
World Grain - May 2022 - 22
World Grain - May 2022 - 23
World Grain - May 2022 - 24
World Grain - May 2022 - 25
World Grain - May 2022 - 26
World Grain - May 2022 - 27
World Grain - May 2022 - 28
World Grain - May 2022 - 29
World Grain - May 2022 - 30
World Grain - May 2022 - 31
World Grain - May 2022 - 32
World Grain - May 2022 - 33
World Grain - May 2022 - 34
World Grain - May 2022 - 35
World Grain - May 2022 - 36
World Grain - May 2022 - 37
World Grain - May 2022 - 38
World Grain - May 2022 - 39
World Grain - May 2022 - 40
World Grain - May 2022 - 41
World Grain - May 2022 - 42
World Grain - May 2022 - 43
World Grain - May 2022 - 44
World Grain - May 2022 - 45
World Grain - May 2022 - 46
World Grain - May 2022 - 47
World Grain - May 2022 - 48
World Grain - May 2022 - 49
World Grain - May 2022 - 50
World Grain - May 2022 - 51
World Grain - May 2022 - 52
World Grain - May 2022 - 53
World Grain - May 2022 - 54
World Grain - May 2022 - 55
World Grain - May 2022 - 56
World Grain - May 2022 - 57
World Grain - May 2022 - 58
World Grain - May 2022 - 59
World Grain - May 2022 - 60
World Grain - May 2022 - 61
World Grain - May 2022 - 62
World Grain - May 2022 - 63
World Grain - May 2022 - 64
World Grain - May 2022 - 65
World Grain - May 2022 - 66
World Grain - May 2022 - 67
World Grain - May 2022 - 68
World Grain - May 2022 - 69
World Grain - May 2022 - 70
World Grain - May 2022 - 71
World Grain - May 2022 - 72
World Grain - May 2022 - 73
World Grain - May 2022 - 74
World Grain - May 2022 - 75
World Grain - May 2022 - 76
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-may-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-january-2022
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-december-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/-world-grain-november-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-october-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-september-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-august-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-july-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-june-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-may-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2021_01_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_12_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_11_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_10_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_09_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_08_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_07_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_06_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_05_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_04_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_03_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_02_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_01_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_11_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_10_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_08_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com