World Grain - May 2023 - 6

FROM THE EDITOR
Food protectionism
a growing threat
s geopolitical tensions escalate
to a level not seen since the
Cold War between the United
States and Soviet Union in the mid to
late 20th century, globalization, which
in recent decades helped spur the world
to unprecedented prosperity with the
opening of global supply chains, is under
siege.
A
The ties that bind free trade are fraying.
Russia is at war with Ukraine and, indirectly,
NATO countries. The discord
between superpowers China and the
United States has reached a near boiling
point, featuring everything from a trade
war that lasted several years, to spy balloon
accusations, to current threats of
military conflict over the question of
Taiwan's sovereignty. Britain not long
ago shockingly divorced itself from the
European Union in a move that was labeled
" Brexit. "
These seeds of dissension have contributed
to an increase in food protectionism
among some of the world's
largest grain producers and exporters.
Those paying the biggest price are the
countries
cluding quota, licenses and outright bans
- remained in place, suggesting that,
contrary to World Trade Organization
principles, the limits have not all been
temporary. Those restrictions cover more
than 11% of 2022 food trade, with export
bans alone covering up to 3.8%. Countries
with a small share of food exports account
for most of the remaining restrictions. As
protectionism, conflict and global inflation
increase, the gap between the grain
" haves " and " have nots " widens.
It's hard to envision this trend reversing
without the war between Russia and
Ukraine, now in its 14th month, ending.
Although the Black Sea Grain Initiative
has been helpful in getting backlogged
grain out of Ukraine, a top-five
producer of wheat, corn and sunflower
oil, exports are nowhere near pre-war
totals. Meanwhile, Russia, the world's
largest fertilizer exporter, has limited
shipments of that important crop input
and has shown favoritism in targeting its
grain and fertilizer exports to countries
with sympathetic views toward Russia.
Until some of these geopolitical conthat
are heavily dependent
on imports, with Africa and the Middle
East being most affected.
The rise of authoritarianism and the
growing political and economic instability
breed fear. This feeling of insecurity,
which was exacerbated during the
recent COVID-19 pandemic, has led to
a " circle the wagons " mentality in many
countries where food security is closely
tied to politicians' ability to retain power.
After the start of the Russia-Ukraine
conflict, the number of countries imposing
export tariffs on grain products
quickly increased as governments
sought to stabilize the domestic supply
and price of food.
According to the World Bank, a year
after Russia's Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of
Ukraine, 101 export restrictions - in6
flicts
are resolved - hopefully through
diplomatic means - it's difficult to envision
a return to the level of free trade we
enjoyed through the late 20th and early
21st centuries. Difficult as it may be,
governments must resist the urge to limit
or ban grain exports unless the food security
situation in their
countries is truly dire.
The fate of a growing
number of food insecure
people on this
planet - estimated
at nearly 350 million
people (more than the population of the
United States) in 2023 by the World Food
Programme - depends on it.
Arvin Donley
Editor
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May 2023 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

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World Grain - May 2023

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