World Grain - November 2022 - 36

FEATURE: GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE REVIEW
2021-22*
GLOBAL GRAIN SUPPLY-DEMAND SUMMARY
WHEAT
Supply 2021-22
Beginning stocks .............290.5 (-2.5%)
Production ...................... 779.9 (+0.6%)
Total Supply ..................1268.4 (+0.1%)
Total Traded....................203.1 (+0.1%)
MAIZE
Supply 2021-22
Beginning stocks .............292.7 (-4.7%)
Production ....................1219.7 (+8.0%)
Total Supply ..................1694.3 (+4.4%)
Total Traded..................203.2 (+11.3%)
SOYBEANS
Supply 2021-22
Beginning stocks ........... 100.0 (+5.6%)
Production ........................353.2 (-4.1%)
Total Supply ......................606.0 (-3.6%)
Total Traded......................153.3 (-6.9%)
RICE
Supply 2021-22
Beginning stocks ........... 188.0 (+3.1%)
Production ...................... 515.0 (+1.1%)
Total Traded...................... 54.7 (+7.5%)
SORGHUM
Supply 2021-22
Beginning stocks ............... 3.9 (+1.4%)
Production ..........................62.1 (-0.5%)
Total Supply ..................... 77.9 (+2.2%)
Total Traded....................... 11.9 +4.7%)
BARLEY
Supply 2021-22
Beginning stocks ...............20.8 (-4.2%)
Production ........................145.4 (-9.5%)
Total Supply ......................197.5 (-9.7%)
Total Traded........................33.0 (-8.8%)
RAPESEED
Supply 2021-22
Beginning stocks ...............6.4 (-16.7%)
Production ..........................73.8 (-0.2%)
Total Supply ........................94.6 (-3.7%)
Total Traded......................14.6 (-19.3%)
* All totals estimated
** FSI = Food, Seed and Industrial
Source: US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, DC
( ) percentage change from 2020-21
Demand 2021-22
FSI use** .................... 45.8 (-0.1%)
Feed use ...............100.9 (-12.7%)
Total ......................... 146.7 (-9.1%)
2021-22
Ending stocks ............17.6 (-15.3%)
Area harvested............48.6 (-7.3%)
Demand 2021-22
All uses ...................516.6 (+3.5%)
Area harvested ......166.5 (+0.8%)
2021-22
Ending stocks ............184.8 (-1.6%)
Total Supply.............756.3 (+2.4%)
Demand 2021-22
FSI use** .................432.0 (+2.2%)
Feed use ................746.8 (+3.1%)
Total ......................1178.8 (+2.8%)
2021-22
Ending stocks ..........312.1 (+6.6%)
Area harvested........207.0 (+4.0%)
Demand 2021-22
FSI use** .................628.5 (+2.0%)
Feed use ................161.0 (+1.9%)
Total ........................789.5 (+2.0%)
2021-22
Ending stocks ............275.6 (-5.1%)
Area harvested........222.1 (+0.7%)
Impact of strengthening dollar
Rises in the value of the dollar, more
pronounced against some currencies
than others, have wiped out declines
for certain countries.
" Turkey, Sri Lanka and Ghana at
the top of the list have depreciated
very sharply, " he explained, discussing
a slide showing the biggest currency
falls year on year. " That has
been adding to prices since May
2021. "
Demand 2021-22
Crush ....................... 313.8 (-0.4%)
Other ........................49.1 (+3.2%)
Total ........................362.9 (+1.4%)
2021-22
Ending stocks ............89.7 (-10.3%)
Area harvested........130.4 (+1.3%)
He pointed out that the US dollar
index is now trading at around a
20-year high. For Ghana, that meant
prices in local currency up by around
70%. Overall, the effect of a dollar increase
of 30% was an 8% rise in the
wheat price index.
" It influences all the markets, " he
said. " It is not only about supply and
yield of supply and flat dollar prices,
but also about the dollar. "
The IGC's latest forecast, at the
time of this writing in mid-October, is
for 2022-23 wheat production at 792
million tonnes, a year-on-year rise of
1.3% and a record, based on a record
average yield of 3.5 tonnes hectare.
Trade is expected to be down by 2%
at 192.8 million tonnes.
Demand 2021-22
FSI use** .................... 34.7 (-5.4%)
Feed use ................26.8 (+11.4%)
Total ..........................61.5 (+1.2%)
2021-22
Ending stocks ................4.3 (+10.7)
Area harvested............41.6 (-3.4%)
Tighter maize situation
Looking at maize prices, Miriam
Morath, an economic analyst with the
IGC, identified tightening supply and
demand, and uncertainty surrounding
grain export flows from the Black
Sea, as well as bearish global fundamentals
as key drivers.
Prices had declined from earlier reDemand
2021-22
Crush ........................71.5 (+0.5%)
Other ........................3.6 (+35.0%)
Total ..........................75.1 (+1.9%)
2021-22
Ending stocks ..............4.8 (-25.2%)
Area harvested.......... 37.8 (+8.3%)
cord levels, " but nonetheless they remain
higher than a year ago and also
much higher than the five-year average, "
she said.
Maize output is expected to be
down 4% in 2022-23, at 1.168 billion
tonnes, but despite the sharp fall the
crop would still be the second largest
on record, while Morath pointed out
that lower feed use will lead to a 2%
drop in demand, " but it could nonetheless
be the second highest year on
record, " she said. " The impact of high
36
November 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
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World Grain - November 2022

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