World Grain - November 2022 - 63

When will it end?
The big question is: How much longer is this anomalous
weather pattern going to prevail? Drought is most
serious today in the Great Basin and across California
as well as in portions of Nebraska and areas southward
into Texas. The end of October likely marks the peak of
the current round of dryness, and it also coincides with
the peak of this third wave of La Niña.
November should be the first month in a more active
weather pattern. Sufficient amounts of rain and some
snow are expected in various parts of the nation to induce
some pockets of drought relief. However, a general
soaking that would bolster soil moisture from one
side of the country to the other and in both Canada and
Mexico is very unlikely.
November's precipitation should be greatest in the
northern Plains and a part of Canada's Prairies. Later
this winter, those same areas will receive additional
moisture, setting the stage for improved spring planting
conditions. Some improved winter wheat establishment
conditions should occur as well. However, the westcentral
US Plains will remain drought-stricken with an
ongoing concern for crop conditions through the winter.
Most of the analog years reviewed so far have shown
alternating periods of precipitation in various locations
across the Midwest, Delta and Great Plains during the
coming winter. There may also be a short-term bout
of greater precipitation in California during the winter
as warm ocean water between northern California and
Hawaii helps to set the stage for a short-term bout of
improved precipitation and runoff.
The cooler temperatures of late autumn also will help
to slow evaporation rates that will be important through
the winter.
Overall, the winter of 2022-23 promises to be a little
warmer than usual in the central and southern Great
Plains and across most southern states. Two large areas
of net drying will occur. The first drier area will impact
hard red winter wheat production areas and the second
will include the lower and middle Delta into the southeastern
United States. In contrast, Canada's Prairies,
the northern US Plains and a part of both Texas and the
middle Atlantic Coast states into the eastern Midwest
will be a little wetter than usual for the December
through February period.
Cool weather may impact the western and north-central
parts of the nation most often, but during the late
winter there is expected to be a period of more significantly
cold weather in the eastern Midwest and Atlantic
Coast States that might raise the risk of Florida citrus
damage and could raise supplemental heating fuel demand
for a little while.
Soil moisture coming into spring will remain short to
very short in the west-central Plains as well as from the
World-Grain.com / World Grain / November 2022
30-day percent of normal precipitation ending Oct. 27, 2022
90-day percent of normal precipitation ending Oct. 27, 2022
5
10
25
50
75
90
100 110 125 150 200 300 400 600
lower Delta into the southeastern states. A small part
of the upper Midwest may also be drier than usual for
a while in early spring. California crop areas will have
opportunity for some moisture improvements, but early
indications suggest no serious turnaround in drought
status is expected.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World
Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present,
past and future weather conditions included in this report
constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of this
report and are subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
63
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World Grain - November 2022

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