World Grain - November 2023 - 16

GRAINMARKET REVIEW
Soybean monthly prices
(in US dollars per tonne)
OILSEEDS
Post-harvest supplies weigh on soy market
by Chris Lyddon
There's been a slight decline in oilseeds prices, alongside a
larger drop for soy oil, as harvests pressure the market in the
face of slow demand.
The International Grains Council (IGC) in its Oct. 19 Grain
Market Report said of the soybean market's performance over
the previous month, that " pulled lower by declines in the US
and Brazil, average international values retreated by 2% over
the month. "
Chicago soybean spot futures registered a net decline of 1%
in a month of sometimes choppy activity as the progressing
US harvest and generally weak underlying international demand
weighed on sentiment, it said.
" Soft export demand was partly linked to continued lateseason
competition from Brazilian suppliers, with US dollar
firmness a consistent feature, " the IGC said.
The influence of soy product markets was mixed, the London-based
international organization explained.
" Despite turning higher more recently, likely in tandem with
crude oil, a sharp month-on-month drop in soya oil values
pressured, contrasting with gains in soymeal, " the IGC said.
" With increasing new crop availabilities weighing on basis
levels, Gulf export quotations retreated by 2%, to $512 fob.
Highlighting the competitive position of Brazilian exporters,
old crop supplies continued to be offered at an atypical discount
to the US, export quotations (Paranagua) declining by
4%, to $491 fob. "
Finally on soy, it noted that " in Argentina, Up River values
held steady month-on-month, at $521 fob. "
On rapeseed, the IGC reported that " ICE canola futures in
Canada retreated by 3% month-on-month on seasonal harvesting
pressure, limited export demand and weakness in soya
oil. Physical markets also declined, with fob (Vancouver) quotations
falling by $25, to $557. In Australia, fob values (Kwinana)
fell by $32, to $503. "
The USDA's Economic Research Service, in its Oil Crops
Outlook, published Oct. 12, reported that soybean export prices
moved lower this month, especially in the United States
where the new crop began to arrive on the market while ship16
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Soybeans (US), c.i.f. Rotterdam
ments from a record Brazil crop infringed on the US export
season.
" Additional negative pricing pressure was provided by a
higher-than-anticipated US quarterly stocks report, " it added.
" Argentina prices were little changed on tight supplies, while
Brazil prices were down modestly. "
The US experts made the point that " vegetable oil was a
particularly strong driver of oilseed prices this month. "
" Palm oil prices fell to a three-month low on seasonally
high production and competition from other oils, including
sunflowerseed oil, which is currently trading at an unusual
discount, " the ERS said. " In the United States, smaller-thanexpected
August crush volume as well as lower Renewable
Fuel Standard credit (RIN) prices moved average soybean oil
prices $104 per tonne this month. "
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO), the world price of vegetable oil was down
by an average 3.9% in September compared with the previous
month, the second fall in a row. In its Oct. 6 Food Price Index
report, it said the decline was " driven by lower world prices
across palm, sunflower, soy and rapeseed oils. "
" International palm oil prices continued to decrease in September,
chiefly underpinned by seasonally elevated production
in major producing countries in Southeast Asia, " the FAO
said. " Meanwhile, world sunflower oil quotations declined
markedly, reflecting the harvest pressure of sunflower seed in
the Black Sea region amid robust farmer selling activities.
" As for rapeseed oils, international prices declined on lingering
abundant global export supplies, while world soy oil
prices also followed suit, despite prospects of a firm demand
from the biodiesel sector. "
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: cajlyddon@gmail.com
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November 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Jul
Aug Sep
Source: USDA; World Bank
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - November 2023

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