World Grain - November 2023 - 28

FEATURE: GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE REVIEW
2022-23*
GLOBAL GRAIN SUPPLY-DEMAND SUMMARY
WHEAT
Supply 2022-23
Beginning stocks .............272.6 (-4.0%)
Production ...................... 790.5 (+1.2%)
Total Supply ..................1272.7 (+0.6%)
MAIZE
Supply 2022-23
Beginning stocks ........... 310.5 (+6.0%)
Production ......................1155.6 (-5.1%)
Total Supply ....................1641.7 (-3.2%)
Total Traded....................181.6 (-12.0%)
SOYBEANS
Supply 2022-23
Beginning stocks .............102.9 (-1.1%)
Production ...................... 370.1 (+2.7%)
Total Supply .................... 636.4 (+3.1%)
Total Traded..................170.0 (+10.0%)
RICE
Supply 2022-23
Beginning stocks .............182.4 (-2.6%)
Production ...................... 513.5 (+0.1%)
Total Supply ......................749.6 (-0.7%)
Total Traded........................54.3 (-4.5%)
SORGHUM
Supply 2022-23
Beginning stocks ............... 4.3 (+9.5%)
Production ..........................56.1 (-8.7%)
Total Supply ......................66.8 (-14.3%)
Total Traded...........................6.6 (-43%)
BARLEY
Supply 2022-23
Beginning stocks .............18.2 (-12.5%)
Production ...................... 151.6 (+4.3%)
Total Supply ..................... 200.0(+1.9%)
Total Traded........................29.9 (-7.5%)
RAPESEED
Supply 2022-23
Beginning stocks ...............4.6 (-26.9%)
Production ...................... 88.5 (+16.9%)
Total Supply ..................112.5 (+17.1%)
Total Traded......................14.6 (-19.3%)
* All totals estimated
** FSI = Food, Seed and Industrial
Source: US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, DC
( ) percentage change from 2021-22
Demand 2022-23
FSI use** ...................45.7 (+0.2%)
Feed use ................105.1 (+5.3%)
Total .........................150.8(+2.7%)
2022-23
Ending stocks ............ 19.1 (+4.9%)
Area harvested............47.1 (-5.2%)
Demand 2022-23
FSI use ......................36.7 (+4.2%)
Feed use ................. 19.8 (-25.5%)
Total ........................... 56.5 (-8.7%)
2022-23
Ending stocks ..............3.7 (-13.9%)
Area harvested............40.0 (-1.7%)
Demand 2022-23
All uses ...................523.1 (+1.3%)
........................................................
2022-23
Ending stocks ............172.2 (-5.5%)
Area harvested........165.5 (+0.1%)
Demand 2022-23
FSI use** .................629.6 (+0.2%)
Feed use ................. 156.1 (-3.1%)
Total ......................... 785.7 (-0.4%)
Demand 2022-23
FSI use** .................. 429.9 (-0.8%)
Feed use ................. 730.6 (-1.9%)
Total .......................1159.5 (-1.1%)
2022-23
Ending stocks ............267.1 (-2.0%)
Area harvested..........220.9 (-0.4%)
Total Traded ............ 219.8 (+8.4%)
2022-23
Ending stocks ............299.4 (-3.5%)
Area harvested..........200.8 (-3.0%)
Major decline in EU imports
The EU's maize imports are expected
to fall by 29% to 20.8 million tonnes,
mostly reflecting larger domestic
availabilities. As of Sept. 17, " cumulative
arrivals totaled 3.2 million tonnes
(down 45% on same period of previous
year) amid a marked slowing in
arrivals from Ukraine, " the IGC said.
China's imports are forecast to rise
by 13% to 22 million tonnes, " including
larger imports from Brazil, facilitated
by last year's signing of a phytosanitary
protocol, " the IGC said. " July
and August arrivals from that origin
totaled 3.3 million tonnes. "
Demand 2022-23
Crush ....................... 311.7 (-0.8%)
Other ........................51.4 (+3.6%)
Total ......................... 363.3 (-0.3%)
2022-23
Ending stocks ..........102.9 (+3.9%)
Area harvested........136.5 (+4.0%)
" Amid ample exportable supplies,
lower prices and reduced
Ukrainian competition, US dispatches
(September/August) are forecast to
rebound to 48.5 million tonnes (up
15%), " the IGC said. " Although cumulative
export commitments lagged
the previous season by 9% as of Sept.
7, totaling 11.2 million tonnes, the
year-on-year deficit has narrowed considerably
in the period since the last
Grain Market Report. "
Demand 2022-23
Crush ......................80.5 (+11.4%)
Other ..........................4.2 (+7.6%)
Total ........................84.8 (+11.2%)
2022-23
Ending stocks ............ 7.5 (+63.0%)
Area harvested.......... 41.8 (+8.8%)
For Ukraine exports (Oct/Sep), the
forecast is unrevised at 18 million
tonnes, down 38% from last year.
" With grain exports still almost
wholly directed across the country's
western borders, logistics remain difficult
owing to ongoing attacks on port
and storage infrastructure, especially
along the Danube River, " the IGC said.
" However, deliveries by road reached
a five-month peak in August, while
traders also reported larger dispatches
by rail. With threshing of the 2023-24
crop just starting, new crop supplies
are yet to enter the export pipeline. "
The IGC is expecting Brazilian exports
to reach a record of 52 million
tonnes, a figure 8% higher than last
year.
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European
correspondent. He may be contacted at:
cajlyddon@gmail.com
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28
November 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - November 2023

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