World Grain - November 2023 - 60

FEATURE: WATER STORAGE, RIVER FLOW LEVELS A GLOBAL CONCERN
Percent of normal rainfall in South America
1
5
25
50 80 120 150 200 400 600
Six-month percent of normal rainfall ending Oct 23, 2023
Shallow groundwater drought indicator
in Western Europe in 2021-23. The green revolution
that enables man to genetically alter crops for higher
yields has been the saving grace for the ever-expanding
population and demand for food. But at the same time,
the water supply has become more unreliable with a
growing concern about future production potential in
areas dependent upon agriculture.
This year's drought in Brazil is coupling with an El
Niño event and promises to keep rainfall lighter than usual
in center west and northeastern parts of the nation in a
manner similar to that of 2015-16. Production of many
crops was reduced during that spring and summer, and
without irrigation some yields were notably below average.
The same may occur this year with seasonal rainfall
already off to a poor start in Mato Grosso, northern Mato
Grosso do Sul and areas from Tocantins into Bahia and
northern Minas Gerais. Some of this dry bias will probably
last into the heart of the summer in these areas, although
some timely rain should evolve in center west
Brazil to improve soybean, corn and cotton production
potential. Northeastern Brazil may not be so lucky with
restricted rainfall expected over a longer period of time.
Australia began enduring a sudden drought of significance
after La Niña abated. Western Australian
rainfall has been minimal since mid-September, hurting
the production of wheat, barley and canola. The
same occurred in Queensland and northern New South
Wales earlier this spring and is now underway in South
Australia. Each of these areas of dryness will pressure
crop production in the next few weeks and months, and
the same is occurring in southern Indonesia.
The good news for North America, Europe and
2
5
10
20 30 70
80 90 95 98
Wetness percentile
viding water for many communities and transportation,
but the basin is also key in producing rain in some of
Brazil's center west and northeastern agricultural areas.
Irrigation has never been much of a need in northern
Brazil because of its routinely occurring monsoon
season that brings waves of rain southward from the
Amazon Basin into soybean, corn, cotton, rice, sugar
cane and coffee areas.
Drought in northern Brazil this year is one of the
worst seen in modern history, and the same can be said
for the drought in North America the past few years and
60
Argentina is in the next few months rainfall is expected
to improve in many areas. There will still be parts of
North America dealing with drought into 2024, but
there's hope for a better summer season in those areas.
Meanwhile, the world's water supply is still of great
concern and new ways to store and conserve moisture
likely will be instigated in coming decades as the world
deals with an ever-increasing population and demand
for water. Relief is expected for the Mississippi River
Basin in coming months and the same is expected
on many of Europe's major rivers, but relief for the
Amazon River may be slower in coming - something
that will be more likely in 2024 than in late 2023.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World
Weather, Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.
rr.com. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining
to present, past and future weather conditions included in this
report constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of
this report and are subject to change without notice.
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November 2023 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Source:
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - November 2023

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