World Grain - November 2024 - 14

GRAINMARKET REVIEW
US soybean prices received by month
(in dollars per bushel)
OILSEEDS
Improved soybean prospects
push prices lower
by Chris Lyddon
Average oilseed prices have moved lower in recent weeks as
crop prospects for soybeans improved, but the outlook for
rapeseed has remained bullish.
The International Grains Council (IGC) in its Oct. 17 Grain
Market Report said, " average international soybean values, as
tracked by the IGC GOI sub-Index, softened by a net 3%, "
since the previous month's report, " on an increasingly bearish
fundamental backdrop, with broadly comparable declines at
all origins. "
" Chicago soybean spot values retreated compared to midSeptember, "
the IGC said. " The market initially moved higher
as underlying worries about Brazilian planting weather underpinned,
with strength in energy and vegetable oils values,
coupled with an upturn in international demand for US supplies,
adding to the positive tone. "
In recent weeks, however, futures weakened as prospects
for favorable South American crop weather weighed, the IGC
said, noting that the Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates from the US Department of Agriculture
had underscored " prospects for heavy US and global harvests. "
" With
basis levels little-changed month on month, Gulf
export quotations eased by 2%, to $405 fob, " the IGC said.
" With export premiums showing only modest adjustments
over the month, Brazilian fob prices (Paranagua) tracked US
futures lower, dropping by 3%, to $420. "
The Council also reported that in Argentina, a similar fall in
Up River offers was registered, to $406 fob.
On rapeseed, the IGC said that " ICE canola futures in Canada
advanced by a net 3% month on month as support from
local crop worries, short covering and an uptick in export demand
underpinned, more than offsetting harvesting pressure
and weakness in soybeans. Fob quotations (Vancouver) advanced
by $9, to $472, with Australian quotations (Kwinana)
rising relatively more sharply, by $38, to $528 fob. "
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) said in its Food Price Index report of Oct. 4 that veg14
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etable oil prices in September were up 4.6% from their level
in August, at their highest level since early 2023.
" The continued rise of the price index was driven by higher
quotations across palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils, " the
FAO said. " International palm oil prices rose for the fourth
consecutive month in September, underpinned mainly by
concerns over lower-than-expected production that coincided
with anticipated seasonal output declines in major Southeast
Asian producing countries.
" Meanwhile, world soy oil quotations rebounded due primarily
to lower-than-expected crushing in the United States.
As for sunflower and rapeseed oils, the marginal price recoveries
in September were supported by a tightening supply outlook,
following reduced outputs of respective oilseeds in the
2024-25 season. "
In its Oil Crops Outlook, published Oct. 16, the USDA
Economic Research Service (ERS) pointed out that 2024-25
opening stocks have been cut because of a reduction in Indonesian
palm oil production in 2023-24. Indonesian production
in 2024-25 is also lower, although partly offset by higher output
in Thailand.
" Rising palm oil prices are expected to result in lower consumption, "
the ERS said. " Palm oil prices (Malaysia, Free On
Board) surged to $1,070 per tonne in the first week of October,
which is $82 higher than the average price in September,
and almost 19% higher than the September 2023 price level.
ERS reported Argentina, Up River, FOB soybean oil rising to
$1,003 per tonne in the first week of October. "
As a result, palm oil prices were nearly $70 higher compared
with soybean oil prices on the FOB basis, the ERS said,
noting that " historically palm oil is a discount priced oil to
soybean oil. "
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: cajlyddon@gmail.com
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November 2024 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - November 2024

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