World Grain - November 2024 - 16

COUNTRY FOCUS
FOCUS ON
UKRAINE
War-torn nation sees commodity
production rebound, exports improve
by Susan Reidy
Ukraine continues to face staggering losses to its people and
economy as it approaches the three-year mark of Russia's invasion.
But its resilience is paying off as crop production rebounds
and alternative trade routes and partners keep agriculture exports
moving.
The agriculture industry, which is the third largest contributor
to Ukraine's economy, has been a primary military target
for Russia. Ukraine's amount of arable under its control has
dropped to 26.5 million hectares from 32.7 million. In addition
to taking land, Russia has blockaded key Ukrainian Black Sea
ports to stop grain exports and stolen Ukrainian machinery and
crops.
Damage and losses to the agriculture industry from the war
had exceeded $80 billion by the end of 2023. Rebuilding is expected
to cost $56.1 billion with an additional $32 billion for
demining, according to the European Parliamentary Research
Service (EPRS). Through EU Solidarity Lanes, the Black Sea
Initiative and most recently the Ukrainian Corridor, the nation
has managed to keep its economy afloat and export commodities,
thereby averting a wider global food security
crisis.
The human loss also has been immense
with many farmers either
killed, displaced or serving in
the armed forces. Several of
the most prominent figures in
Ukraine's agricultural sector
have been killed, including
Oleksiy Vadaturskyi, the
founder of Nibulon.
Ukraine is well suited for
agriculture production with
a third of the world's most
fertile land. The nation is
mostly flat, and the primary
weather is moderate continental
with a temperate climate and
adequate rainfall, the EPRS said.
It has an abundant supply of water
16
KEY FACTS
Capital: Kyiv
Population: 35,661,826
Religions: Orthodox (includes the Orthodox
Church of Ukraine (OCU), Ukrainian Autocephalous
Orthodox Church (UAOC), and the Ukrainian
Orthodox - Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP)).
Ukrainian Greek Catholic, Roman Catholic, Protestant,
Muslim, Jewish (2013 est.).
Location: Eastern Europe, bordering the Black
Sea, between Poland, Belarus, Romania, and
Moldova in the west and Russia in the east.
Government: Semi-presidential republic. Chief
of state: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (since
May 20, 2019); head of government: Prime Minister
Denys Shmyhal (since March 4, 2020).
Economy: Lower-middle-income, non-EU, Eastern
European economy that has seen gradual recovery
after a 30% contraction in the GDP at the
start of the Russian invasion in 2022. The pace
of recovery is expected to slow in 2024 to 3.2%
from 4.8% in 2023, reflecting a smaller harvest
and a persistent labor shortage. Inflation has
declined from 26.6% at the end of 2022 to only
4.3% in February 2024, with a restrictive monetary
policy stance and conducive food supply
contributing to this reduction. Poverty in Ukraine
has increased by at least 1.8 million people since
the start of the war with more than 9 million now
living in poverty. Ukraine's economic outlook is
conditional on the timing and quantity of external
assistance receipts and the assumed duration
of Russia's invasion. Starting from 2025,
Ukraine's economic growth could accelerate to
6.5% as export growth resumes, and reconstruction
investment supports the demand side. Private
consumption growth is projected to remain
modest due to contractionary monetary policy
needed to rein in post-war inflation. Inflation is
expected to pick up in 2024 as one-off factors
subside but is projected to decrease from 2025.
GDP per capita: $16,200 (2023); inflation: 12.85%
(2023 est.); unemployment: 9.83% (2021 est.).
Currency: Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH); 41.33 Ukrainian
hryvnias equal 1 US dollar (Oct. 22, 2024).
Exports: $51.093 billion (2023 est.): corn, seed
oils, wheat, iron ore, rapeseed (2022).
Imports: $88.488 billion (2023 est.): refined petroleum,
cars, natural gas, garments, packaged
medicine (2022).
Agriculture: 7.4% of GDP (2023) and 14% of the
labor force (2021).
Internet: Code: .ua; 34,596,356 (2021 est.).
Source : CIA World Factbook/World Bank/International
Trade Administration
November 2024 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - November 2024

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