World Grain - November 2024 - 18

COUNTRY FOCUS
Ukraine wheat output, exports
(in 1,000 tonnes)
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Ukraine corn output, exports
(in 1,000 tonnes)
* Exports * Production *Estimated **Projected
with several large rivers, more than 3,000 lakes and 1,100 artificial
water reservoirs.
Its top three commodities include wheat, corn (maize) and
sunflowers, with most production intended for export. While
production dropped in 2022-23, Ukraine has seen record
yields and increased estimates for corn, wheat and soybean
totals in the 2023-24 marketing year. Exports have increased
for all three commodities.
Grain production and exports are expected to drop in 202425,
coming off record-breaking yields in 2023-24 and a smaller
planted area due to a drop in profitability. However, soybean
area is expected to expand, and production estimates are
higher along with export expectations in 2024-25.
Production, trade
Ukraine is one of the world's top agricultural producers and
exporters, playing a crucial role in supplying grains and oilseeds
to the global market. Total grain production in 202324
is estimated at 60.1 million tonnes, up from 54.6 million
tonnes in the previous marketing year, according to the FAS.
Barley production is estimated at 6.1 million tonnes, similar
to 2022-23, while corn is estimated at 31 million tonnes,
up from 27 million tonnes, and wheat production is also up
from 21.5 million tonnes to 23 million tonnes. Rye production,
however, has decreased to 231,000 tonnes from 315,000
tonnes.
Looking ahead to the 2024-25 marketing year, the FAS is
predicting production to drop for all four crops, noting that
2023-24 had record-breaking yields. Barley is estimated at 5.7
million tonnes; corn at 26.2 million tonnes; wheat at 22.3 million
tonnes; and rye at 200,000 tonnes.
" Grain production in Ukraine has remained unprofitable
since Russia's invasion, and this is expected to translate into
decreased grain area for 2024-25, " the FAS said. " With 2024
yields forecast below the previous near-record-breaking 2023,
the total grain 2024-25 production volume is forecast to be
18
lower than for the previous marketing year. "
Given their better profitability compared to grains, farmers
plan to plant more soybeans and rapeseed in 2024-25, according
to the FAS. It estimates sunflower seed production at 11.5
million tonnes, down 4% from the previous marketing year
(12 million tonnes), soybean production of 5.1 million tonnes,
a 7% increase (4.8 million tonnes), and rapeseed production
of 4 million tonnes, similar to last year.
Agricultural products are Ukraine's most significant exported
commodity, accounting for about 41% of the country's
shipments. The EU became the primary market for Ukrainian
grains in 2023-24, but Ukrainian exporters are expanding
their footprint by reclaiming markets lost due to Russia's
invasion, the FAS said.
Wheat exports in 2023-24 increased 6% to 18.1 million
tonnes and corn exports were up 3% to 28 million tonnes. Barley
dropped 9% to 2.5 million tonnes and rye dropped 83% to
3,000 tonnes.
Of note in 2023-24 was a 250% increase in corn exports to
Egypt and Turkey, the FAS said. Small batches of corn also
started going to India while shipments to the EU and China
fell.
Wheat exports to two major destinations, the EU and Egypt,
grew and there was also a spike in shipments to several smaller
destinations, including Vietnam, Algeria, Lebanon, Israel,
Tunisia and South Korea.
" Pakistan became a new destination, importing 814,000
tonnes, " the FAS said. " This expansion became possible predominantly
due to a large drop in exports to Turkey, from 3.1
million tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes. "
The FAS said grain exports are expected to ease in 202425.
Wheat and corn will see the biggest drops with wheat
falling 24% to 13.7 million tonnes and corn dropping 22%
to 21.8 million tonnes. Barley exports are expected to drop
6% to 2.3 million tonnes, while rye exports will see a 333%
increase to 10,000 tonnes. The estimates assume no large
November 2024 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
2024-25**
2023-24*
2022-23
2021-22
2020-21
2019-20
2018-19
2017-18
2024-25**
2023-24*
2022-23
2021-22
2020-21
2019-20
2018-19
2017-18
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World Grain - November 2024

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