World Grain - November 2024 - 57

Precipitation Anomalies (cm/month)
Sept 1952
Oct 1952
September and October was just as intense as that of
2024. The biggest difference has been from the excessive
rain and flooding associated with hurricanes
Francine and Helene. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones
generally are not cyclical events. Their randomness
can change other prevailing weather patterns and that
was the case in the southeastern United States this fall.
However, the hurricanes had no influence on weather
in the Great Plains, the northern or western Midwest,
Canada, Mexico or the Pacific Northwest. For those
areas, the weather pattern was much like that of 1952
with unusual dryness prevailing in many areas.
Now that the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean
is winding down, the parallel pattern of 1952-53
should have greater influence at least for the next several
weeks and/or few months. This repeating cycle
suggests the Tennessee River Basin and portions of
the southeastern United States will remain dry biased
in November while rain falls in the southern Plains
and in a strip from the central Plains (hard red winter
wheat areas) into the Great Lakes region. The pattern
also suggests some moisture in the southwestern
United States, although confidence in that is low.
Portions of the lower Midwest will continue to see
below-normal rainfall in November if this pattern prevails.
There also may be some dryness in a part of the
upper Midwest and in the Pacific Northwest.
The Pacific Northwest is expected to get a break
from dryness in December while parts of the Midwest
and Tennessee River Basin keep their lighter-thanusual
rainfall pattern in place. Hard red winter wheat
areas are expected to benefit from improved rainfall
in November and timely rain in December, and the
Midwest wheat crop should get some timely rain.
In the meantime, South America weather will not
Nov 1952
be ideal for November and December, but it should be
sufficiently good enough to keep crop prospects looking
good for corn, soybeans and other crops. That,
in combination with good conditions in China and
India and improving weather in Europe, will not leave
much support for dramatic rises in futures prices - not
based on weather alone. There still will be concern for
Russia and Australia output, but the losses in both areas
are unlikely to get larger, keeping a lid on market
appreciation due to weather - at least for now.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com.
Dec 1952
-4
-3
-2
Drier than usual
-1
1
2
3
4
Wetter than usual
World-Grain.com / World Grain / November 2024
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present,
past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute
the corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are
subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
57
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