World Grain - November 2024 - 6

FROM THE EDITOR
Has China's import
boom peaked?
I
t's almost impossible to overstate
China's impact on global grain markets.
For several decades its huge
population,
booming
economy
and
grain production limitations have led to
a surge in grains and oilseeds imports.
In the 2023-24 marketing year, China
ranked first in wheat, corn, sorghum and
barley imports, according to data from
the Foreign Agricultural Service of the
US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
It also ranked first, as it always does,
in soybean imports by a wide margin,
bringing in 111.5 million tonnes of the
177 million tonnes (63%) of soybeans
traded globally. Since 2000, its combined
imports of corn, wheat and soybeans
has increased by 982% (13.5 million
tonnes to 146.1 million)!
But with its population declining for
the first time since the Great Famine in
the early 1960s and a faltering economy
influencing Chinese consumers' food
purchases, China's long-term demand
for imported grain is, at best, unclear.
The China Agricultural Monitoring
and Early Warning System (CAMES)
recently estimated China's grain imports
would decline by 30% from 2024
to 2033. That's an eye-opening number
and is at odds with the other projections,
including the USDA's 10-year forecast.
CAMES foresees sharp declines in
imports for rice (down 29%), wheat
(down 24%), corn (down 73%) and soybeans
(down 20%) during that period.
The USDA forecasts a slight decrease in
wheat imports, slight increases in corn
and rice intake, and a 33% increase in
soybean imports. If the CAMES projection
is anywhere close to accurate
(I have my doubts), it would radically
impact trade flows and spell trouble for
global grain producers and traders.
But even the USDA's more modest
projections would represent a substantial
downward shift compared to the
6
last 20 years or so. While most analysts
predict a long-term steady population
decline in China, the state of its economy
is more volatile, less predictable
and possibly more of a short-term concern.
But the population downturn alone
would be enough to reduce China's
grains and oilseeds demand.
Another factor is China's desire to
become more self-sufficient. The CAMES
report sees China's grain output increasing
by 11% over the next 10 years,
while grain consumption is projected to
rise by a modest 2.3%. Efforts to boost
domestic grain production, including
approving the cultivation of genetically
modified corn varieties after years of being
anti-GM, should, at least in theory,
lead to less reliance on imports.
China's massive grain stockpiles are
also worth noting. China accounts for
20% of the global population, but the
USDA in 2022 estimated that it possessed
nearly 70% of the world's corn
reserves, 60% of its rice and 51% of its
wheat. This astonishingly large stockpile,
coupled with its leading position as
a grain importer and the commitment to
ramp up production, reflects one of China
President Xi Jinping's favorite sayings:
" The Chinese people's rice bowl
must be firmly held in their own hands. "
While China's grain imports will
likely level off in the coming years, it's
unlikely a country so
obsessed with food security
will drastically
reduce its intake by the
large percentages forecast
in
the
CAMES
report. A more likely
scenario will involve a steady increase
in output, a slight increase in imports
and ever-expanding grain stockpiles.
Arvin Donley
Editor
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World Grain - November 2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - November 2024

World Grain - November 2024 - Intro
World Grain - November 2024 - 1
World Grain - November 2024 - 2
World Grain - November 2024 - 3
World Grain - November 2024 - 4
World Grain - November 2024 - 5
World Grain - November 2024 - 6
World Grain - November 2024 - 7
World Grain - November 2024 - 8
World Grain - November 2024 - 9
World Grain - November 2024 - 10
World Grain - November 2024 - 11
World Grain - November 2024 - 12
World Grain - November 2024 - 13
World Grain - November 2024 - 14
World Grain - November 2024 - 15
World Grain - November 2024 - 16
World Grain - November 2024 - 17
World Grain - November 2024 - 18
World Grain - November 2024 - 19
World Grain - November 2024 - 20
World Grain - November 2024 - 21
World Grain - November 2024 - 22
World Grain - November 2024 - 23
World Grain - November 2024 - 24
World Grain - November 2024 - 25
World Grain - November 2024 - 26
World Grain - November 2024 - 27
World Grain - November 2024 - 28
World Grain - November 2024 - 29
World Grain - November 2024 - 30
World Grain - November 2024 - 31
World Grain - November 2024 - 32
World Grain - November 2024 - 33
World Grain - November 2024 - 34
World Grain - November 2024 - 35
World Grain - November 2024 - 36
World Grain - November 2024 - 37
World Grain - November 2024 - 38
World Grain - November 2024 - 39
World Grain - November 2024 - 40
World Grain - November 2024 - 41
World Grain - November 2024 - 42
World Grain - November 2024 - 43
World Grain - November 2024 - 44
World Grain - November 2024 - 45
World Grain - November 2024 - 46
World Grain - November 2024 - 47
World Grain - November 2024 - 48
World Grain - November 2024 - 49
World Grain - November 2024 - 50
World Grain - November 2024 - 51
World Grain - November 2024 - 52
World Grain - November 2024 - 53
World Grain - November 2024 - 54
World Grain - November 2024 - 55
World Grain - November 2024 - 56
World Grain - November 2024 - 57
World Grain - November 2024 - 58
World Grain - November 2024 - 59
World Grain - November 2024 - 60
World Grain - November 2024 - 61
World Grain - November 2024 - 62
World Grain - November 2024 - 63
World Grain - November 2024 - 64
World Grain - November 2024 - 65
World Grain - November 2024 - 66
World Grain - November 2024 - 67
World Grain - November 2024 - 68
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com