World Grain - October 2021 - 18

GRAINMARKET REVIEW
COARSE
GRAINS
Market eyes crop progress
by Chris Lyddon
Market developments for maize in late summer tracked sentiment
about the US crop in its final stages of development.
In its Market Perspectives report of Sept. 16, the US
Grains Council (USGC) said the maize market was sold off
into the USDA's September World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and rallied afterwards.
" The September WASDE wasn't especially bullish, but
the lack of a bearish surprise led to short-covering and a
stronger market this week, " the USGC said. " After the
USDA numbers were released and digested by the trade,
there was a sense the market was oversold and needed a
correction and that prices were perhaps undervalued. "
In the WASDE report, published on Sept. 10, the USDA
raised its forecast for total world coarse grains production
in 2021-22 to 1.496.89 billion tonnes, from its figure of
1.484.40 billion a month earlier. Its forecast for the US
crop was raised to 395.67 million tonnes from 388.28 million.
The US increase is primarily because of an upward revision
in the country's maize crop to 380.93 million tonnes
from 374.68 million.
Outside the United States, the 2021-22 outlook is " for
larger production, greater trade, and increased stocks relative
to last month, " the USDA said, explaining that increases
in forecast maize output in China and Argentina more
than offset reductions for Russia and Serbia.
An increase in expectations for China is " based mostly
on near- to above-normal rainfall in the key Northeast
provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and
Liaoning, " the USDA said. " Argentina corn production is
raised based on expectations of higher area. "
The development of the crop remains a dominant theme
for the US maize market.
" Since the USDA issued the September WASDE, early
yield results from the Midwest, particularly the Eastern
Corn Belt, have been below expectations, " the USGC said.
" This has rekindled discussion of lower yields for the 2021
crop, which is supporting futures. "
The USGC also noted that harvesting was behind the
five-year average pace. Consequently, it is too soon to accurately
judge the crop's potential.
18
Monthly corn prices
(in US dollars per tonne)
100
150
200
250
300
350
Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21
Maize (US), No. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports
50
" US cash markets and basis levels remain strong, which
is further supporting futures, " the USGC added. " Farmers
have been reluctant sellers, waiting to see how early-year
new crop exports will fare and waiting for additional harvest
progress/yield results before making sales. "
In its Grain Market Report of Aug. 26, the International
Grains Council (IGC) reported a slight fall in prices over
the previous month but noted that average maize values
were still almost 50% higher than a year earlier. It noted
that " slowing ethanol production and uncertainty about
blending mandates also contributed to the downside late
in the month. "
Prices in Argentina were softer as stocks increased following
the completion of harvest, while " sustained supply
fears and heightened quality worries in southern growing
states hampered fresh export business in Brazil, " the IGC
said. " Despite seasonally rising availabilities and ongoing
arrivals from Argentina, domestic prices remained high,
while export quotations (Paranagua) firmed by $7 m/m, to
$264. "
The IGC said barley prices rose by 9%, bringing them to
28% higher on the year, in sometimes volatile trade with
price quotations poorly defined at times. The move reflected
tightening global supplies amid continued strong feed
demand, the IGC noted.
Sorghum was pressured by maize's fall, while oats
strengthened on tight supply and rye was underpinned by
what the IGC called " less than ideal harvesting weather, " in
major producer Germany, as well as strong prices in other
grains.
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
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October 2021 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
USDA; World Bank
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World Grain - October 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - October 2021

World Grain - October 2021 - Intro
World Grain - October 2021 - 1
World Grain - October 2021 - 2
World Grain - October 2021 - 3
World Grain - October 2021 - 4
World Grain - October 2021 - 5
World Grain - October 2021 - 6
World Grain - October 2021 - 7
World Grain - October 2021 - 8
World Grain - October 2021 - 9
World Grain - October 2021 - 10
World Grain - October 2021 - 11
World Grain - October 2021 - 12
World Grain - October 2021 - 13
World Grain - October 2021 - 14
World Grain - October 2021 - 15
World Grain - October 2021 - 16
World Grain - October 2021 - 17
World Grain - October 2021 - 18
World Grain - October 2021 - 19
World Grain - October 2021 - 20
World Grain - October 2021 - 21
World Grain - October 2021 - 22
World Grain - October 2021 - 23
World Grain - October 2021 - 24
World Grain - October 2021 - 25
World Grain - October 2021 - 26
World Grain - October 2021 - 27
World Grain - October 2021 - 28
World Grain - October 2021 - 29
World Grain - October 2021 - 30
World Grain - October 2021 - 31
World Grain - October 2021 - 32
World Grain - October 2021 - 33
World Grain - October 2021 - 34
World Grain - October 2021 - 35
World Grain - October 2021 - 36
World Grain - October 2021 - 37
World Grain - October 2021 - 38
World Grain - October 2021 - 39
World Grain - October 2021 - 40
World Grain - October 2021 - 41
World Grain - October 2021 - 42
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