World Grain - September 2021 - 75

oceanic and atmospheric events, when they
are studied over a prolonged time period
it becomes obvious that there are times
when ENSO events align themselves with
the solar cycle.
It has been proven that certain weather
conditions occur at various points in the
solar cycle and the same is true within the
ENSO cycle. One of those correlations is the
coincident occurrence of below-average precipitation
in the US Midwest and a part of the Great Plains
during times in which La Niña occurs simultaneously
with the solar minimum. Even though these two phenomena
occur randomly and seem to be unrelated
-10
Weather seems to be one of
the most chaotic and random
events that occurs naturally in
the atmosphere, and yet when
the patterns are studied long
enough they reveal a definite
nature of repetition.
when they occur together, there is a predictable event.
World Weather, Inc. has found that the coincident
occurrence of La Niña and the 22-year solar minimum
aligns well with below-average precipitation in the
US Midwest during the September through November
period. A similar alignment occurs between South
America rainfall and the simultaneous occurrence of
La Niña and the solar minimum. In South America, the
pattern correlates well with below-average southern
Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay rainfall from September
through November, which is when seasonal rains
usually begin in soybean and corn production areas.
Similarly, there is a tendency for rainfall to be lighter
than usual from center-west into center-south Brazil
during the December through February period. There
is also a tendency for far southern Brazil to become
wetter biased during the same December through
February period. This anomalous pattern verified once
again during the 2020-21 spring and summer and may
occur again in the 2021-22 growing season.
A similar trend for below-average precipitation is
expected September through November 2021 in the
eastern US Plains, Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern
states. A below-average precipitation bias also
tends to occur in California, the central and southern
World-Grain.com / World Grain / September 2021
-6
-2
2
6
10
Notable September to March moisture deficits (in
inches) in key US crop areas during solar minimum and
La Niña events during the past 90 years.
Rocky Mountain region and southwestern desert region.
In the meantime, there is a tendency for greaterthan-usual
precipitation to occur in the Cascade and
northern US Rocky Mountains during the September
through November period.
What it may mean
The bottom line brings additional worry for US and
South America crop moisture in the 2021-22 growing
seasons. Brazil already is carrying some large moisture
deficits from the past year of poor rainfall distributions
and will have great need for improved rainfall this year.
The solar cycle and La Niña will jointly work to limit
the potential for a big recovery in long-term moisture in
Brazil and a close watch on crop development will be
warranted this spring and summer to make sure the drier
areas get sufficient rain to support 2022 production.
In the United States, a below-average autumn and
winter precipitation bias is in place for the Great Plains,
Midwest, Delta, California and the southwestern desert
states. If that forecast verifies, there will be little
moisture replenishment in areas that already have been
struggling with dryness this year. That could bring us to
spring with moisture shortages in many areas and that
might not bode well for 2022 production.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather,
Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World
Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past
and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the
corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to
change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries
to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles,
email reprints@sosland.com.
75
Source: NOAA
http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - September 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - September 2021

World Grain - September 2021 - Intro
World Grain - September 2021 - 1
World Grain - September 2021 - 2
World Grain - September 2021 - 3
World Grain - September 2021 - 4
World Grain - September 2021 - 5
World Grain - September 2021 - 6
World Grain - September 2021 - 7
World Grain - September 2021 - 8
World Grain - September 2021 - 9
World Grain - September 2021 - 10
World Grain - September 2021 - 11
World Grain - September 2021 - 12
World Grain - September 2021 - 13
World Grain - September 2021 - 14
World Grain - September 2021 - 15
World Grain - September 2021 - 16
World Grain - September 2021 - 17
World Grain - September 2021 - 18
World Grain - September 2021 - 19
World Grain - September 2021 - 20
World Grain - September 2021 - 21
World Grain - September 2021 - 22
World Grain - September 2021 - 23
World Grain - September 2021 - 24
World Grain - September 2021 - 25
World Grain - September 2021 - 26
World Grain - September 2021 - 27
World Grain - September 2021 - 28
World Grain - September 2021 - 29
World Grain - September 2021 - 30
World Grain - September 2021 - 31
World Grain - September 2021 - 32
World Grain - September 2021 - 33
World Grain - September 2021 - 34
World Grain - September 2021 - 35
World Grain - September 2021 - 36
World Grain - September 2021 - 37
World Grain - September 2021 - 38
World Grain - September 2021 - 39
World Grain - September 2021 - 40
World Grain - September 2021 - 41
World Grain - September 2021 - 42
World Grain - September 2021 - 43
World Grain - September 2021 - 44
World Grain - September 2021 - 45
World Grain - September 2021 - 46
World Grain - September 2021 - 47
World Grain - September 2021 - 48
World Grain - September 2021 - 49
World Grain - September 2021 - 50
World Grain - September 2021 - 51
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World Grain - September 2021 - 53
World Grain - September 2021 - 54
World Grain - September 2021 - 55
World Grain - September 2021 - 56
World Grain - September 2021 - 57
World Grain - September 2021 - 58
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World Grain - September 2021 - 60
World Grain - September 2021 - 61
World Grain - September 2021 - 62
World Grain - September 2021 - 63
World Grain - September 2021 - 64
World Grain - September 2021 - 65
World Grain - September 2021 - 66
World Grain - September 2021 - 67
World Grain - September 2021 - 68
World Grain - September 2021 - 69
World Grain - September 2021 - 70
World Grain - September 2021 - 71
World Grain - September 2021 - 72
World Grain - September 2021 - 73
World Grain - September 2021 - 74
World Grain - September 2021 - 75
World Grain - September 2021 - 76
World Grain - September 2021 - 77
World Grain - September 2021 - 78
World Grain - September 2021 - 79
World Grain - September 2021 - 80
World Grain - September 2021 - 81
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World Grain - September 2021 - 83
World Grain - September 2021 - 84
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World Grain - September 2021 - 90
World Grain - September 2021 - 91
World Grain - September 2021 - 92
World Grain - September 2021 - 93
World Grain - September 2021 - 94
World Grain - September 2021 - 95
World Grain - September 2021 - 96
World Grain - September 2021 - 97
World Grain - September 2021 - 98
World Grain - September 2021 - 99
World Grain - September 2021 - 100
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-september-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-august-2021
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https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-june-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-may-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-april-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-march-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/world-grain-february-2021
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2021_01_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_12_01
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https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_09_01
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https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_04_01
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https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
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https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_08_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
https://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
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https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
https://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
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