World Grain - September 2024 - 14

GRAINMARKET REVIEW
FAO all rice price index
(based on 21 rice export quotations)
120
150
RICE
Record crop revised lower
by Chris Lyddon
Despite a cut in the US Department of Agriculture's projection
for world rice production this year, the crop is still set to
be a record and prices have come down accordingly.
In its Rice Outlook report, published on Aug. 14, the USDA's
Economic Research Service (ERS) said the Department
has cut its estimate for world 2024-25 rice production by
464,000 tonnes, to 527.7 million, " still a record. "
" Production forecasts are lowered for Vietnam, the United
States and Ukraine, but raised for Russia and Kazakhstan, "
the US experts said. " Global domestic and residual use in
2024-25 is projected at a record 527 million tonnes, down
fractionally from the previous forecast. "
Trade in rice in 2024 is forecast at 55.2 million tonnes, up
112,000 tonnes from the previous forecast, with export forecasts
raised for Thailand and the United States, the ERS said.
" Over the past month, quotes for trading prices for most
grades of regular (neither parboiled nor aromatic) whole grain
milled rice from Thailand decreased 1% to 2%, " the ERS said.
" Price quotes for 5% brokens from Vietnam increased slightly
over the past month for both the earlier harvested winterspring
crop and summer-autumn crop that is currently being
harvested.
" Except for Argentina, price quotes from South American
exporters increased over the past month. US trading prices
for long-grain and medium-grain milled rice were unchanged
over the past month, although rough-rice prices continued to
decline for both southern long-grain and California mediumand
short-grain. "
The US Rice Producers Association in its " Rice Advocate "
publication of Aug. 16, pointing to the reduction in the USDA's
figure for supplies, said that " despite this drop, we are
still up 14% compared to last year, which has been the plan
because of the increased crop size. "
" World consumption dropped slightly based on figures
coming out of Vietnam, the Philippines, and Kenya, " the
USRA said. " The global trade drop is because of Brazil not
14
having any rice, Vietnam slowing some, and of course, India. "
The USRA said that over the past month, US prices have
dropped from the $790 (per tonne) range it has been sitting at
since March, down to $770.
" This is despite demand from Latin America, but overweighted
by the expectations of the larger crop, " the association
said. " Per the report, Uruguay quotes dropped to $803 per
tonne as purchases by Brazil and the EU declined. "
The International Grains Council's (IGC) take on the market,
outlined in its Aug. 15 Grain Market Report, was that
average international rice prices " were little changed m/m
(month-on-month) amid offsetting adjustments at key origins. "
" In
Thailand, white and parboiled quotations softened
slightly on generally weak buying interest, while 5% broken
values in Vietnam advanced by $14, to $563 fob (Ho
Chi Minh), following fresh sales to Indonesia and the Philippines, "
the IGC said. " Elsewhere, new crop pressure weighed
in Pakistan, while parboiled prices in India retreated on subdued
demand from West Africa. "
In the August 2024 issue of the FAO Rice Price Update,
the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said that world
average rice prices were down 2.4% in July compared to June,
at a 12-month low. Indica quotations were 2.9% below June
levels.
" Quiet trading
activities
also lowered Japonica prices
by 2.1% month-on-month, while aromatic quotations were
broadly steady, " the FAO said. " By contrast, glutinous prices
edged up 0.6% above their June levels, but with increases
confined to Thailand, where thinning availabilities lent some
support to quotations. "
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent.
He may be contacted at: cajlyddon@gmail.com
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Source: Food and Agriculture Organization
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World Grain - September 2024

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