World Grain - September 2024 - 24
available set of tools involves both carrots and sticks:
discounts and favorable terms for those who earn it,
and unofficial trade restrictions and minimal sale price
for the countries deemed unfriendly.
Increasing state attention to the grain industry is no
surprise since it is starting to play a more important
role in Russian foreign trade. Petr Khodykin, head of
Rodnie Polya, assumed that the growth in grain exports
could secure much-needed revenue diversification for
the national economy.
Speaking with a local news outlet, Prime, Khodykin
emphasized the need to open new logistics corridors
to facilitate trade with China, Turkey, Iran, Indonesia,
Vietnam, India, Bangladesh and Asian countries. He
added that these efforts are required to better compete
with grain from the United States, Canada and Ukraine
in the global market, and with the European Union and
Australia in the Middle East.
Khodykin stressed that, under current conditions,
grain exports could become " a new oil, " compensating
the Russian budget for the unstable revenue from
hydrocarbon exports. Khodykin's remarks refer to the
warning signs that the Russian oil and gas sector, a traditional
backbone of the national economy, may start
crumbling under the weight of Western sanctions.
Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom recently
said its financial performance plunged to a loss of 629
billion roubles ($6.9 billion) in 2023, its first annual
loss in more than 20 years, amid dwindling gas trade
with Europe, once its primary sales market.
Aside from the political rationale, Russian government
officials and analysts explicitly state that they
seek to end free pricing on the global wheat market. An
24
inter-BRICS grain exchange, a draft project of which is
due to be ready in July 2024, is one of the tools called
to serve this purpose.
" The idea of such an exchange, to put it simply, is
to create a cartel, " said Alexander Dynkin, president
of the IMERO institute under the Russian Academy of
Science. " In general, it will resemble OPEC, thanks to
which oil prices remain higher than they could be without
coordination of the exporting countries' actions
among themselves. "
Dwindling profits
Unless the global grain cartel regulating wheat prices
becomes real, the Russian grain industry's potential to
earn more money for the state treasury seems questionable,
as the sector is far from its best financial shape.
AKRA, a Russian rating agency, warned that Russian
grain farmers are experiencing falling profitability despite
the growth in exports.
In 2024, the Russian grain industry's average marginality
could plunge to 20% or 25%, the lowest level
since 2019. For comparison, the analysts noted that in
2022, the figure was 27.3% and nearly 50% a year earlier.
The Russian Agricultural Ministry's calculations
paint an even gloomier picture. Elena Fastova, deputy
minister, revealed that if the state subsidies are not factored
in, the figure would be as low as 15.3%.
The trend should not be interpreted as Russian farms
simply starting to earn less money. As the Russian
Central Bank jacked up the key interest rate to 16%
in a bid to tame food inflation and keep the Russian
ruble's exchange rate at bay, bank loans have become
more expensive. The investment inflow is believed to
September 2024 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
©Svetlana-stock.adobe.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - September 2024
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - September 2024
World Grain - September 2024 - Intro
World Grain - September 2024 - 1
World Grain - September 2024 - 2
World Grain - September 2024 - 3
World Grain - September 2024 - 4
World Grain - September 2024 - 5
World Grain - September 2024 - 6
World Grain - September 2024 - 7
World Grain - September 2024 - 8
World Grain - September 2024 - 9
World Grain - September 2024 - 10
World Grain - September 2024 - 11
World Grain - September 2024 - 12
World Grain - September 2024 - 13
World Grain - September 2024 - 14
World Grain - September 2024 - 15
World Grain - September 2024 - 16
World Grain - September 2024 - 17
World Grain - September 2024 - 18
World Grain - September 2024 - 19
World Grain - September 2024 - 20
World Grain - September 2024 - 21
World Grain - September 2024 - 22
World Grain - September 2024 - 23
World Grain - September 2024 - 24
World Grain - September 2024 - 25
World Grain - September 2024 - 26
World Grain - September 2024 - 27
World Grain - September 2024 - 28
World Grain - September 2024 - 29
World Grain - September 2024 - 30
World Grain - September 2024 - 31
World Grain - September 2024 - 32
World Grain - September 2024 - 33
World Grain - September 2024 - 34
World Grain - September 2024 - 35
World Grain - September 2024 - 36
World Grain - September 2024 - 37
World Grain - September 2024 - 38
World Grain - September 2024 - 39
World Grain - September 2024 - 40
World Grain - September 2024 - 41
World Grain - September 2024 - 42
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